Italian PM is kingmaker in European Commission nomination
Jonathan Lindsell, 10 June 2014
This morning Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, reaffirmed her support for Jean-Claude Juncker as EU Commission President. Her announcement came after a ‘mini-summit’ in Sweden, where she had been discussing EU reform with David Cameron, Mark Rutte (the Netherlands’ prime minister) and Fredrik Reinfeldt (Sweden’s prime minister). The four leaders agreed to delay a final decision, instead focusing on specific EU policies.
Germany’s support for pro-federalist Juncker, former prime minister of Luxembourg and candidate of the European People’s Party, might spell the end for Downing Street’s attempts to block him. This may cause domestic trouble for the Conservatives, since they promised a thorough EU renegotiation before a referendum in 2017. Such renegotiation would be limp or non-existent if Juncker is at the head of the executive, which holds responsibility for proposing new laws or changes. This is especially the case if Juncker were to remain as bullish as he currently seems, dismissing the continent-wide cry for a change of direction as he has. Last week Daniel Bentley explored why Juncker was so ill-suited for the job, noting his lack of media awareness or tact. Yesterday even Labour supported David Cameron’s position on Juncker.
Without Angela Merkel on side, David Cameron only has one reasonable option left: an appeal to Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi. Renzi is charismatic, young, unelected, and won over 40% of the recent European Parliament vote on a reformist platform. He has already forced the leaders of Italy’s largest state companies to resign and appointed women in their places, sold off over a thousand state-owned sports cars, and passed substantial reforms to the Italian senate. Renzi also has the ‘Five Star Movement’ to consider. The comedian Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment party came second in Italy with 21.2% of the vote.
Renzi has publicly noted that Juncker has no automatic right to the top job, but hasn’t gone as far as to oppose the nomination. He told the press, “Someone who wants to continue with the policies of the past few years will not have our consent.” If Italy, Britain and a few smaller EU countries united, they could form a ‘blocking minority’ in the European Council and force other nations’ leaders to reconsider.
Who then? Martin Schultz is the Socialist candidate, but Chancellor Merkel apparently hates him. Christine Lagarde, veteran of the IMF and France’s former Finance Minister, is being widely discussed but might be unacceptable to anti-austerity sensitivities in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal. Enda Kenny of Ireland looks like a moderate choice, but has never indicated desire for the role. Tory MEP Daniel Hannan publicly bet on Helle Thorning-Schmidt, prime minister of Denmark, but complains that she and Lagarde are as bad (i.e. as pro-integration) as Juncker, only smoother.
Clearly consensus over a Commission candidate will be difficult to maintain, and Renzi finds himself temporarily kingmaker. However, the European Council’s nomination must be put before the newly-elected European Parliament. MEPs, many elected on anti-Establishment or anti-EU promises, may fail to give Juncker (or any other pro-European) the 376 votes he needs (of 751) to take the job.