Is it too early to evaluate French authorities or the deterrent effect of the migrant return deal on small boats arrivals?

Jim McConalogue, 3 November 2025

The government’s recently negotiated UK-France migration deal – in which small boats arrivals to the shores of Britain are removed on flights to France – has been (rightly) subject to intense popular and media scrutiny. But in a public debate so polarised around immigration at this time, it’s worth asking what the evidence tells us about whether the deal’s enacted measures are likely to work.

The deal essentially means the UK returns to France those asylum seekers who arrive over the English Channel in small boats but is then also dutybound to accept the same number of vetted asylum seekers who have come through legal routes.

News on Friday that the UK government’s deal has thus far returned 75 migrants, while 51 people have arrived here under the scheme, sound potentially underwhelming.

Article 4 of the UK-France deal had such high hopes:

‘France shall readmit, upon application by the United Kingdom and without further formalities to be undertaken by the United Kingdom other than those provided for in this Agreement, relevant Third-Country Nationals, who upon arrival through a dangerous journey, do not, or no longer, fulfil, the conditions for entry to, presence in, or residence in the territory of the United Kingdom …‘

And yet the return of 75 immigrants to France at a time when we are looking at almost 11,500 migrants crossing the Channel since the deal came into force in August, seems a paltry outcome. More broadly, some 36,954 people have come over in small boats this year, higher than 36,816 for the entirety of the previous year.

However, it was only in mid-September that the first removals of small boat migrants were enforced under the UK-France deal, so it is possibly too early to judge its deterrence effect at all. Equally, it is not entirely clear whether ministers see this as only deterrence-level – that is, illegal migrants coming to see the small boats avenue to the UK as increasingly closed off (i.e. the UK never intending to literally return large numbers of ‘illegals’).

But, if we undertake some simple analysis, we could, looking at the available Home Office data – both for the migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats and the French interventions – seek some reasonable foundation for how well illegal migration is being managed.

In one approximate comparison of the Home Office data, if we compare the migrants arriving in small boats in the 79 days before and after the migrant deal came into force, there’s only a small difference. In total, 12,737 migrants came in that period before the deal, and 11,518 came in the 79 days after. Okay, an approximate difference of a thousand but not much and, notably, a decrease in arrivals. 

Unsurprisingly, a similar decreasing pattern is found for the number of small boats arriving. There were 202 boats before the deal and 172 after. A small change but, nonetheless, a decrease.

Despite all appearances, even those heavy-hitting large numbers arriving ashore on specific days didn’t particularly change much. In the 79 days before the deal, on 9 of those days it was larger than 500 migrants, on 70 days it was under that level. In the 79 days after, 8 of those days saw over 500 migrants, 71 saw fewer than 500.

One surprising finding is that the Home Office published (provisional) data related to ‘migrant preventions’ – estimates collected and provided to the UK by French authorities – shows there is a separate and distinctive pattern: 7,249 migrants were apparently prevented in the 11 weeks before the deal, but 4,513 were prevented in the 11 weeks after. So, why the drastic drop by over a third?

The initial hope in the spirit of the deal – involving the former Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and her French counterpart, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau (both of whom have now moved on) – was that the French government would find new ways of cracking down on small boats, including reviewing their ‘maritime tactics’ so their operational teams could act to stop taxi boats picking up migrants waiting in the water.

That data on preventions for migrants includes mainly individuals who are prevented from departing France, or those who return to France, so why the drop? Under the deal, should preventions not have risen? The long-term data is not yet in, but the answer may well rest with the ongoing political turmoil in France (and the loss of its former interior minister), which had been tied to the commitments to stopping small boats crossing the English Channel.