Ukip will do well without having to do much at all
Anna Sonny, 28 October 2014
Every day, the Prime Minister’s policy on the European Union becomes more baffling. In the latest debacle with the EU budget, Cameron claimed that he wasn’t aware of the increase in contributions; this turned out not to be true, with the government having known since May that any upward revision of Britain’s national income would result in a heavier bill from the EU. Now the Prime Minister is claiming he didn’t know the scale of the contribution that would be demanded.
Why the government chose not to fight even the possibility of an increase back in May, given the crystallising antipathy towards the EU in the country, is a mystery. Maybe they thought it would just go away? Or perhaps Cameron thought if he could just show the public that he could renegotiate on this, voters would believe that he is the man who can truly achieve robust reform within a recalcitrant EU?
Either way, the astronomical figure and the impatience of the demand is definitely working in Ukip’s favour. Ukip are doing well without really having to do much at all. So far under the Conservative government they have triumphed in the European elections, seeing their total number of MEPs rise to 24, have welcomed Tory defectors into their midst, gained their first MP, and look set to gain another next month.
Cameron has presided over the kind of government that has seen the rise of other anti-establishment voices such as Russell Brand; Brand is frightening evidence of the fact that voters are so desperately fed up with the main political parties that only 20% of what you say has to make sense in order for you to get your voice heard – the rest can be total waffle but you’ll still get media attention because the political scene is so bleak.
Not only does the populist mission get by on more waffle than fact, it also thrives on discontent and division. Last night, on ITV’s topical chat show The Agenda, in a discussion about the effects of migration, Nigel Farage said: “It’s all well and good for people in central London who earn lots of money and live in expensive houses and have a very nice life, for them immigration has been brilliant because it means cheaper nannies, cheaper chauffeurs and cheaper gardeners.”
This gives the very false impression that nannies, chauffeurs and gardeners are the norm for everyone in London. But Ukip aren’t only thriving on creating deeper divides between north and south, they’re also flourishing on the fault lines in the Conservative party over Europe.
Much like Cameron’s security team, the Conservative party needs to close ranks on the subject, otherwise voices like Brand’s will just get louder.