Bulgaria goes back to the polls
Anna Sonny, 26 September 2014
Bulgaria will go to the polls on October 5th for what will be the third time in the last two years. The EU’s poorest country has changed hands back and forth between the centre-right GERB party and the Socialists amidst political scandals, social unrest and economic woes.
In Febuary last year, anti-poverty protests, triggered by high utility costs, led to the resignation of GERB, and early elections were called. The Socialists came to power but Plamen Oresharski announced the resignation of his government this year in July over its handling of the troubled Corporate Commercial Bank.
The country’s fourth biggest lender has been closed since June 20th after a bank run drained it of cash. No decision has been as yet reached over the bank’s future – the caretaker government that is currently in place doesn’t know whether to bail it out or leave it to fail, and has limited power to deal with it in any case. Failure to form a government in the elections next month would mean more political uncertainty and further delays to finding a solution to the crisis.
According to the current polls, GERB are leading with a third of votes, but is unlikely to form a majority government; the Socialists are in second with 22% and the centrist ethnic Turkish party DPS is in third place with 12%. If GERB can get 110 or more seats in the 240-seat parliament, it could form a centre-right coalition, but a grand coalition may be necessary if it gains less than 100 seats. Bulgaria desperately needs political stability domestically; it is already struggling externally as it finds itself caught in tensions between the EU and Russia. Exports to Russia are in decline because of trade sanctions – any deepening of these sanctions, such as EU visa regime control for Russians – would have severe consequences for the Bulgarian tourism industry, as Russians make up the single largest group of tourists in Bulgaria.
Bulgaria is also heavily dependent on Russian gas and is a key country along the South Stream, the planned pipeline crossing the Black Sea which is intended to bring Russian gas to the Balkans and Western Europe. Following the crisis in Ukraine and the cooling of relations with Russia, the EU urged Bulgaria to stop work on it, saying it didn’t conform to EU rules on energy liberalisation.
If Boiko Borisov, leader of the GERB party, does come out on top next month, he will have a hard time uniting Bulgaria’s polarised parliament. It is hoped that a government can be formed quickly and that these will be the last elections Bulgaria has for the time being.