Scotland: we could have been much better together, but Westminster blew its chance
Joe Wright, 3 September 2014
It’s been an unnerving week for the Better Together campaign. A Times poll released on Tuesday showed opinion has narrowed to 53 per cent against: to 47 in favour of independence, leaving a winnable gap for the Yes campaign. Tempers among campaigners are fraying, as Jim Murphy MP attests to, while the Treasury is stepping up preparations for the possibility of separation after the latest poll prompted a dip in the pound’s value.
Better Together will take solace in the World Economic Forum’s announcement today that the UK has moved up a notch to ninth in the global economic competitive ratings. They will likely take this as a mark of the benefits of union; proof that the UK is on the right track. But competitive or not, it is precisely this narrative which is failing to keep the union together. Scottish Labour has haemorrhaged votes to the Yes campaign in the last week after a successful appearance by Alex Salmond in the TV debates, during which he turned up the attack on NHS privatisation and Welfare cuts (i.e. the Labour line). Conservative MPs have begun pointing the finger at Labour infighting for Better Together’s losses.
But this is not simply a battle within the Left for Scotland’s future. Welfare and NHS spending are symptomatic of a wider problem. The No campaign has struggled to respond to the SNP because economic imbalances have become more important to voters than the UK’s world standing. Behind the power of the UK economy lies the stark reality that a competitive and strong UK does not automatically mean a more prosperous Scotland.
After the financial crisis, it became clear that the UK’s model of growth was not only disproportionately based on the south, but dangerous given the dependency on London, the size and reach of British banks and the precarious position of England’s housing market. Whether fair or not, the UK’s economic ailments were laid squarely at the feet of the capital. At the last election an economic rebalancing was promised; but other than small gains in manufacturing it has not come.
Since 2010, HS2 has constituted the Government’s biggest attempt at rebalancing, while efforts to address banking regulation and house building have remained meek at best. Northern Ireland, the slowest of the UK regions to recover from the crash is, just six years later, finally getting the power to set its own corporation tax in a bid to mimic the growth model of Eire. Devolution and rebalancing will no doubt be promised again in the coming months. But all of these have come too late. The time to act was in 2010. Instead, complacency with the strength of the union allowed the opportunity to pass.
The rest of the UK is simply fed up feeling left behind. The best that can be hoped for from a unionists perspective is that the vote falls narrowly in their favour; that Westminster responds – sincerely – with measures to rebalance the economy over the next two parliaments, before the inevitable second vote. Scotland might be willing to give London another chance, it will not a second time.
I have no visceral objection to Scots independence, but the strongest objection to Scotland walking away from the Union without taking full responsibility for themselves. Cameron should have laid down these conditions for Scottish independence:
1. Scotland to take a share of the UK National debt (excluding the costs involved in supporting Scottish banks and building societies, mainly the RBS and HBOS banks) proportionate to the percentage of the UK population in Scotland. The servicing of this debt to be the first charge on Scotland’s public financing.
2. Scotland to pay for the past and future costs of bailing out Scottish banks and building societies.
3. The huge English subsidies to Scotland to cease immediately on a Yes vote being achieved.
4. All English public sector jobs which have been exported to Scotland to be brought back to England. This would include not merely traditional civil service posts, but facilities such as those supporting UK nuclear submarines.
5. Scotland to launch its own currency or join the Euro. If they remain tied to the pound they would have no true independence and practically be dependent on England for the macro management of their economy.
6. The division of the oil and gas fields to be made on the basis of extending a line at the angle of the coastline on the England-Scotland border. This is in accordance with the UN convention on the Law of the Sea article 7 – see http://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf.
This would give England a substantial proportion of the oil and even more of the gas fields.
7. Scotland to be gifted any state owned building in Scotland but to have no claim on publicly owned facilities in the remainder of the UK.
8. Nuclear submarines and any other fundamentally important military equipment to
be moved to England
9. All military research to be moved to England.
10. All future UK defence expenditure to be made in the remainder of the UK.
11. Scotland to form its own armed forces. These will have to be capable of not only defending Scottish land but also of policing Scottish territorial waters.
12. Scotland to be gifted all military establishments in Scotland , but Scotland to have no claim on military establishments elsewhere in the UK or abroad.
13. Military equipment. Scotland to be gifted existing equipment sufficient to equip whatever forces Scotland forms provided this equipment does not exceed what is available to similar UK forces.
14. All publicly funded non-military research in Scotland to be moved to the remainder of the UK.
15. Scotland to be responsible for the payment of all public sector pensions earned in Scotland before independence.
16. Scotland to be responsible for a share proportionate to the percentage of the
UK population in Scotland of EU related pension earned before independence.
17. Scotland to be responsible for the financing all government contracts relating to
building, goods and services supplied in Scotland which were entered into before
independence.
18. Property relating to UK diplomatic missions to remain the property of the remainder of the UK.
19. Scotland to be responsible for a share of diplomatic pensions earned before independence proportionate to the percentage of the UK population in Scotland.
20. Scotland to be responsible for a share of any public service pensions other
than those related to the diplomatic corps which is earned abroad before independence proportionate to the percentage of the UK population in Scotland.
21. Immigration to Scotland from outside the EU and for any future new EU members to be controlled on the same basis as the UK controls immigration.
22. Scotland to make its own application for EU membership without support from the Westminster government.
23. If the remainder of the UK or England alone leaves the EU, the following may be put in place:
a) border controls between Scotland and the remainder of the UK
b) Scotland to be treated as any other member of the EU would be treated
c) UK protectionist barriers to Scotland
d) an end to free movement from Scotland to the remainder of the UK
e)an end to Scots citizens enjoying the benefits of the UK Welfare State
24. If Scotland is unable to gain EU membership, all of 23 may apply apart from (b).
Conditions 1-22 can be enforced while the UK without Scotland remains in the EU. If the UK without Scotland leaves the EU or England alone leaves the EU, then condition 22 is legal.
Read more at http://englandcalling.wordpress.com/2011/05/06/scottish-independence-yes-but-only-on-these-terms/