Cameron must reform EU migration or campaign for ‘Out’
Jonathan Lindsell, 1 July 2014
Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll shows the Tories have a 5% boost (to 33%, Lab 31%), which pundits are calling the ‘Juncker Jump’, a response to David Cameron’s brave but doomed last stand against the Commission Presidential candidate. In reality, it is more likely to be an anomaly – last Sunday’s Survation poll (Conservatives 27%, Labour 36%, Liberals 7%, Ukip 22%) is far more representative of 2014’s trend.
Dominic Cummings, famous for savaging most of Downing Street, has stepped into this complex world of political ‘market research’, conducting a study of ‘swing voters’ from the C2/D groups to deliver a clearer picture of real EU attitudes for campaign group Business for Britain. His findings have important implications for the EU debate.
Cummings points out “swing voter’s views” are not simply the mean of left and right. His interviewees were strongly unified against immigration and human rights, hostile to Europe, but also suspicious of markets and big business. He highlighted distrust and disinterest in politics, and concluded that minor EU reforms would not be believed or noticed.
(Cummings:) “The two things they most want from a renegotiation are 1) control of immigration and 2) ‘paying in less money’. If a renegotiation leaves the EU in control of immigration, it would be seen as a big failure.”
(Interviewee:) “If we got back control of immigration and human rights, most people would be OK with Europe”
(Interviewee): “Unemployment’s ridiculous, too much competition for jobs cos there’s so much immigration, thousands and thousands coming in and doing it cheaper, I don’t think we can go on – the system’s going to crash.”
If Cameron is serious about a successful EU renegotiation, and believes Cummings’ findings, he must change his focus. Half of the reform priorities established by his Bloomberg speech have virtually no appeal to the swing voter – completing the services single market, tweaking Council rules to prevent a eurozone caucus – whilst others may provoke dull hostility, such as free trade deals with America and Japan. With such goals in mind, commentators like Philip Collins argue (£) that Cameron should demand the ‘Internal Market’ portfolio for Britain’s next Commissioner.
If Cameron truly wants to keep Britain in, Cummings’ report indicates he should be pushing for the job in control of EU migration and labour – currently held by László Andor, who accused Britain of being a ‘nasty country’. This seems the only way for Cameron to deliver the changes people want – if he wants to.
Trevor Kavanagh in today’s Sun (£) has what could be a game-changing leak:
“I am told Mr Cameron will signal shortly that — without real EU reform on immigration and other key demands — he will indeed lead an OUT campaign in Britain’s 2017 referendum.”
We know that EU exit polling with the status quo is roughly 40:40 In/Out, and In wins convincingly if the Prime Minister recommends it after a ‘successful renegotiation’. We’ve seen no polling for a scenario in which Cameron spearheads the ‘Outists’. Together with UKIP, Tories frustrated by migration reform failure could very well deliver Brexit.