Where have all the Liberal Democrats gone?

Nigel Williams, 22 May 2014

At election time, it is a commonplace that only the actual voting matters and opinion polls count for nothing. In terms of power, that is undeniable. Neil (now Lord) Kinnock did not become Prime Minister in 1992 despite the predictions of a great many opinion polls. His wife Glenys (now Baroness) made it to the European Parliament from 1994 to 2009 via the ballot box. However, in this case, knowledge is not the same as power. An opinion poll can yield more information than a secret ballot. Where the election allows a bald cross against a single candidate or party, the poll can ask as many questions as the respondent has patience to answer. As well as revealing how many people hold a particular view, it can tell something about them.

In the YouGov polls prior to the European Parliament elections taking place today, voters were asked how they voted for Westminster MPs in 2010 and how they intend to vote both today and for Westminster next year. The matrix is not exhaustive and smaller parties must be grouped as ‘Other’. The resulting pictures say a lot more than just the size of the swing.

The yellow blocks on the graph represent the size of the Liberal Democrat vote in 2010. The columns reveal how they may be voting today. They have spread to all four corners of the ballot paper. Large chunks will defect to the Green party and to Labour. Smaller sections will go to UKIP and the Conservatives.

The other interesting party is UKIP. The suggestion is that many of their voters sided with the Conservatives in 2010 because they had no prospect of electoral success. That is borne out by the size of the blue block in the UKIP column. Voters that actually chose UKIP in 2010 are not itemised but will constitute much of that grey block.

YouGov’s analysis of 2015 voting intentions does include UKIP, so their column in the graph below includes a large purple block. Good news for the Conservative Party, which could not be derived from the European results alone, is that almost half the UKIP voters intend to return to the Tories next year. The hapless Liberal Democrats can expect no such homecoming. Those that vote Green today show more signs of siding with Labour next year.

This second graph gives an insight into the difference between electoral systems. Under the assumption, possibly unjustified, that voters are making their European choices on much the same issues as for a general election, it shows the difference between a broadly free choice under proportional representation and a choice constrained by the tactics of first past the post. The party attracting extra voters under the less constrained voting system is not the Liberal Democrats. Most of their loyal remaining supporters would put the party first in both elections or not at all. Instead it is UKIP that is for many a first choice, with Conservatives showing as their alternative. Ironically, the Alternative Voting system, which was for the Liberal Democrats the great prize of entering into coalition in 2010, could in 2015 have delivered greater rewards for UKIP and the Conservatives.