Ukip only remains front and centre as long as the European elections do
Joe Wright, 21 May 2014
Perspective is in limited supply when it comes to any election outside of general elections. By-elections, local elections, and European elections: they are always pitched as a trial run for choosing the next government. The BBC for example calls tomorrow’s vote ‘the most significant test of public opinion before next year’s general election’. But with a year still to go, and with a referendum on Scotland’s position in the UK to distract everyone’s attention in the meantime, these elections will be but a distant memory by the time we reach May 2015. Europe will not be an overriding priority in the general election when “the economy, stupid” will return to centre-stage.
European election results more generally are less likely to indicate the outcome of general elections than any generic political poll. This is by and large a single issue election, a year before the country is asked to make a decision based on the sum of the last 5 years, and it will be at the end of weeks of campaigning when smaller parties will be sidelined. What is more, the pressure of general elections on single issue parties like Ukip more often than not takes its toll – as proved to be the case in 2010.
Labour, at least for the time being, seem content with this analysis. In the last day of campaigning before the polls open they seem utterly determined to talk about anything other than Britain’s membership of the EU: Ed Miliband will instead seek to focus on highlighting the party’s ten “cost of living” pledges.
The stoic discipline of Conservative MPs in the face of what is certain defeat to Ukip and Labour tomorrow only comes from a quiet confidence that continued economic growth (which is still far from guaranteed) will be the decisive factor come 2015. As long as wages continue to bump along above inflation, so will Conservative confidence over Ukip. They also remain safe in the knowledge that when push comes to shove, they remain the only party that will credibly offer a referendum to people that really want one.
This does not detract from the wider implications of this election, however. Over four days of polling 751 MEPs will be elected from 28 countries. Among many of the larger member states, discontent with the EU remains rife – with good reason. This is the first European election in which member-states can take stock of the Eurozone crisis and all of its repercussions. It will be the first time voters in Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Ireland and Portugal can voice their opinion of the bailout/reform packages dealt to them by the Troika without having to turn to more dubious domestic fringe parties in general elections. Huge unemployment rates, vast cuts to government spending and welfare, damage to national pride, were all laid squarely at the feet of the EU during those tumultuous years. Now we will know how much damage they have done to the very idea of the European project.
