The age-profile and needs of the population are easy to predict, if only people look

Nigel Williams, 31 October 2013

The baby boomers are retiring in large numbers, bringing stories of a crisis in the provision of care. That much is true but they are by no means the only age group whose needs must be foreseen if they are to be met. Thanks to the census, we have a clear idea of the size and age of the population. This graph uses census-based estimates for each year group in 2012.

Some of the challenges become instantly obvious. If people require increasing amounts of care post-retirement, that will be exacerbated when the cohort born in 1946, the peak year, reach the stage of no longer being able to care for themselves.

Despite the current large supply of retiring baby-boomers, following behind are some less fertile years. For several years to come, the supply of young people in the transitional years between school and a long-term career will exceed the numbers reaching pension age. The economy will have to grow enough to provide extra openings for young people beyond simply filling gaps left by retirement. The ‘lump of labour’ argument suggests that that is possible. Extra labour brings extra spending power but enough of that needs to be directed towards the UK to create the extra job opportunities. These people also need to be kept healthy and require housing for themselves, their families and, in some cases, for their second families.

The reverse pattern takes over as the current cohort in their mid to late fifties reach retirement. Then there may be too few young people to take over. Although governments may find it easier to take credit for reducing unemployment then and in the decade that follows, growth levels (overall, not per capita) will be harder to achieve. At the same time as fuelling the economy, this age-group will be expected to nurture and care for the pre-school and elderly and to educate and train the young. They will be busy. My prediction is that numbers of ‘economically inactive’ will fall even more sharply than unemployment.

Exceptionally, the year-groups now just starting secondary school number under 700,000 children. Following behind are over 800,000 two- and three-year-olds, who will expect to find places available when the time comes. If choice in education is to mean anything, that will require some spare places besides.

As each peak or trough works its way through the population, it brings its own challenges. Regional differences, also documented in the census, will mean in some places the changes will be milder and in others more extreme. It will not do to suggest that the population needs to be smaller. However, allocating the existing resources so that people are better able to bear the burdens expected of them is made easier by using the census to see the issues coming.