EU vs Russia: the fight for the ex-soviet states
Anna Sonny, 13 September 2013
In the months leading up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit in November, where Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and the Ukraine are expected to sign association agreements with the EU, Russia has been ramping up the pressure on its neighbours in what seems like an attempt to deter them from forging closer ties with the EU.
In July, Moscow placed a ban on confectionery produced by Ukrainian company Roshen, claiming that it contained carcinogens. It also blocked wine and spirit imports from Moldova, citing quality concerns – even though nobody else did.
Despite negotiating for over two years to initial an agreement with the EU at the upcoming summit, Armenian President Sarkisian announced last week that Armenia was interested in joining Russia’s customs union, which Belarus and Kazakhstan have already joined. The customs union is part of Russia’s proposed plan to create a Eurasian Union with the former soviet states. Armenia is currently locked in a territorial dispute with Azerbaijan; it has been said that Russian arms sales to the country, worth up to £843 million, forced Armenia’s hand.
The EU has expressed concern at Armenia’s annoucement, and has insisted that the association agreement is not a ‘zero-sum game’, or a split choice between Russia and the EU. But in terms of choosing between an eventual Free Trade Agreement with the EU, and a customs union with Russia, it is either one or the other. While countries participating in FTAs are free to make their own trading arrangements with countries outside the FTA, countries in a customs union have to cede control of trading arrangements with all countries both inside and outside of it. For Armenia then, and any other country, an agreement with the EU and with Russia would be legally incompatible.
While the EU seeks to enlarge its membership eastwards, Russia seeks to extend its sphere of geopolitical influence. Russia is a powerful force with lots of leverage to wield over the former soviet states, but will the prospect of EU membership be enough to make them look west?