Statistics from the Labour Market Menu

Nigel Williams, 13 June 2013

Unemployment figures for the quarter to April 2013 were released on Wednesday this week. The headlines in the report stated that 24,000 more people were in employment than a quarter before, unemployment was down 5,000 and inactivity up 40,000. It makes for a mixed picture about economic growth. In fact these statistics need clearer labelling, as they are drawn from two parallel series. A major hidden story is of an ageing population and workforce.

The change over the previous quarter is dominated by the differences among 65s and over. Employment among those of customary working age actually fell by 14,000, whereas for those past traditional retirement age it rose 38,000.

Seen over a whole year, the picture looks more positive. The Labour Force Survey estimates a shift of over 400,000 into employment. Of that, almost 100,000 are among the 65s and above. Economic inactivity increased over all at 16 and above. That was because 200,000 people aged 16 to 64, almost all female, ceased to be economically inactive, but a greater number of over-64s moved the other way. Retiring baby-boomers continue to dominate that statistic.

In a context where an estimated third of a million more people aged 16 to 64 are in work than a year before, a seasonally adjusted quarterly decline of 14,000 looks less severe. It raises instant questions about the sort of jobs that are being created. Without the seasonal adjustment, a gain of 38,000 post-64 jobs was only 34,000. That is a tiny difference. For the younger age bracket, the quarter saw a reduction of 118,000. It suggests strongly that people in year-round, permanent jobs can choose to defer retirement but their younger peers must take what seasonal work they can. One table reveals an annual increase of 75,000 in part-time work and 44,000 in temporary work but does not break it down by age bracket.

As a footnote, the provisional May 2013 figure for job-seekers allowance claimants on that benefit for over two years exceeded 200,000 for the first time since June 1998. This affects more than one age group. More than 50,000 over 50s are reported in this category, as are over 125,000 aged 25 to 49.

Over the year, unemployment above 16 years decreased by an estimated 88,000. What should be at least as important as stories are the net 187,000 women aged 16 to 64 that came out of economic inactivity and the increase of 96,000 in the number of people in employment past their 65^th birthdays.