Look before EU leap

natalie hamill, 20 October 2011

By Lucy Hatton

Following Tuesday’s decision by the House of Commons Backbench Business Committee, MPs have finally been given the go-ahead to debate whether or not a referendum should be held on the UK’s membership of the European Union. On 24 October, MPs will debate a motion which calls upon the Government to hold a referendum on EU membership, with three potential answers: the UK should remain a member of the EU, leave the EU or renegotiate its terms of membership.

The Government is strongly opposed to any such referendum, a position which has been fiercely criticised in the media. In the vote next week, David Cameron is forcing Conservative MPs to reject the motion with the strongest instruction possible: a three line whip. The Labour opposition government is also expected to encourage its MPs to vote against the call.

If the motion is passed, its supporters propose a referendum be held before May 2013. However, there is no obligation on Cameron to guarantee that a referendum will take place. His disinclination to consult the British public on the issue of the EU has been apparent since he reneged on his promise made in opposition to hold a referendum on the ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon. The issue of the EU has not been put to the public since 1975, so it is clear that such a referendum is long overdue. However, if a referendum did come to pass, there are some obstacles that must be overcome before we can be confident that UK citizens will place their cross in the correct box.

Firstly, and most importantly, whilst it is true that a significant proportion of UK citizens report having a negative image of the EU, last year’s Eurobarometer survey revealed that 56% of the British people do not understand how the EU works. How can those individuals be expected to make an informed decision on whether or not the EU is good or bad for our country when they do not know what it means to be a member? Furthermore, awareness of the EU institutions in the UK is amongst the lowest of all member states – only 70% of the population had ever heard of the European Commission, the lowest awareness level in the EU, whilst 54% reported never having heard of the Council of Ministers: one of the most powerful European bodies. With the Eurobarometer report noting a strong correlation between an individual’s knowledge of the EU and their perception of it, the majority of individuals who admitted a lack of knowledge of the EU would be likely to vote no in the referendum. Unfortunately, their decision would be based primarily on a lack of information rather than genuine informed concern.

This lack of understanding of the issues involved could also result in a repeat of the disappointing turnout at the referendum on the AV electoral system held earlier this year, where only 42% of British people turned out to voice their opinion. If a similar proportion of the population casts their vote on the question of the EU, our future could ultimately be decided by a minority: surely an issue of this significance requires the input of the majority of UK citizens who fully understand the choice they are making.

In addition, the proxy theory of public opinion of the EU proposes that an individual’s level of support for the EU is highly dependent on that individual’s level of support for their national government. There is therefore the potential for any referendum held on the EU to be voted not on the pros and cons of our membership, but whether or not an individual feels like supporting the Prime Minister on the day the vote is held. We need to be able to rely upon the citizens’ reasoned decisions to make the right choice for the UK; the significance of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is such that it should not be decided on impulse. A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU needs to have the participation of a majority of a well informed population who are in a position to make a rational and considered decision; only in this way will a referendum achieve a result that represents the true feelings of the UK.