3D Incapable

Civitas, 26 August 2010

A survey has found that very few people are intending to buy 3D capable TVs in the coming twelve months. While this finding has been labelled as a ‘surprise’, it is hardly shocking given the rapid (and perhaps temporary) ascent of 3D TVs into the market. The result reflects not the ‘conservative’ habits of consumers as one pundit believed, but the simple failure of the TV  manufacturing companies to notice that demand for their 3D TVs is currently nowhere near supply.

YouGov’s poll for Deloitte found that a mere 89 respondents from a group of 4,199 were considering buying a 3D TV in the coming year. This time period is in itself a false measure of demand, implying that TVs are no longer durable goods to be bought and utilised until failure as the majority of consumers still believe. Instead, the new premise is that TVs are luxury goods and a form of conspicuous consumption – flatscreen to HD to 3D – a linear family tree of TVs that the consumer must climb.

This premise has so far failed to take hold,  as evidenced in the 2% ‘positive’ response to the survey. Crucially it forgets an  essential adage of marketing, that the consumer is king (or queen). While it is convenient for electronic companies to hope the consumer treats their products as many do clothes (buying the latest and greatest), conspicuous consumption does not guide our TV purchasing habits.

Paul Lee, Deloitte’s media director complained that, ‘it is remarkable how conservative people’s predictions for their own technology spending habits over the coming year were. They didn’t have to commit to buying anything during the research and yet still predicted very little spend on TV products moving forward’.

This statement is a curious one, implying that the respondents should have said ‘yes’ to 3D TVs because they might as well – no one would later force them to honour their decision and the TV companies can smile at the positive response to their products. Everyone is happy.  Paul Lee assumes that the consumer should want a 3D TV but this demand is not-existent for the most part.

Perhaps there is also a huge ‘elephant-in-the-room’ situation here, that is, that Britain is still in a recession and few have the purchasing power, let alone the inclination, to buy these products while their older TVs work perfectly well.

It has barely been nine months since the film Avatar demonstrated the potential of 3D and only a few years since HD TV debuted. Technological innovation may be an increasingly rapid process, but this is something the consumer often cannot or does not want to keep up with and buying into these value-added benefits occurs over the long-term, often skipping out intermediate stages. Indeed, it may foster an attitude of expectance, that it is better to hold off purchasing a new TV until the price of the current technology reduces or a newer model/product is supplied. While 4D TV is rather unlikely, there are still clear improvements required in the 3D market.

The need for ‘those glasses’, still required for the 3D experience, is a technology which hasn’t really moved on since they came free with comics in the early 1990s. Wearing a pair of 3D glasses over normal glasses will not appeal to many, and won’t promote a surge in demand for contact lenses either. Indeed most people may see the effort needed to use  the 3D TVs as a false benefit and would prefer to wait until such time as 3D requires no accessories, or they would rather forego it all together.

Britain is far from a nation of Luddites but the market researchers are expecting an unlikely paradigm shift from our categorising of TVs as durable goods.  The value of 3D TV in its current state is hard for consumers to see, but they won’t be putting on their 3D specs to correct this any time soon.