Changing Lisbon tide could leave Conservatives stranded

Civitas, 10 June 2009

Last June, the lamp-posts of Dublin were strewn with Libertas posters calling on voters not to sell Ireland’s future to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, writes Luke Clark. Others appealed to Ireland’s nationalist spirit – some even reproduced the ‘Proclamation of Independence’. The campaign against Lisbon was significantly aided by the incomprehensible text of the Treaty – Ireland’s EU Commissioner even stated that he wouldn’t expect “any sane and sensible person” to read it…

Politicians in Ireland and across Europe were lining up to take shots at Libertas founder and leader Declan Ganley. Some reached such levels of desperation that they accused Ganley’s Libertas organisation of being a front for a CIA/Pentagon plot to undermine Europe. This week, Ganley failed in his bid to become an MEP in Ireland’s North-West constituency in a rather anti-climactic end to his political career.

The realities of a severe recession have caused upheaval for the Irish and led to a shift in attitudes towards the Lisbon Treaty. Ireland’s second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is due to take place before the end of 2009 and, as with the first vote, most people still won’t understand the 330 page Lisbon Treaty. Nevertheless, after rejecting the Treaty last June by 53.4%, polls now show that, in Ireland, support for the Lisbon Treaty has risen to 54% with only 28% in the ‘no’ camp.

So, what has changed the tide of Irish opinion on the Lisbon Treaty?

A year ago Libertas’ ‘no’ campaign argued that under the Lisbon Treaty, Ireland would be dominated by an unaccountable, unelected EU. Nothing in the last year suggests that the EU will radically shift towards greater transparency and accountability. It is also unlikely that a second referendum would be used as a way to punish the unpopular Irish government; the swing in favour of Lisbon coincided with a collapse in support for the government over the winter.

The difference now is that Ireland is facing a terrible recession. Over half the population think it is important for the Irish economy that Lisbon is passed and another poll showed that over 60% of Irish people are concerned about Ireland ‘losing its status in Europe’. Like the annual pilgrimage to the hill of Croagh Patrick, Irish voters – hoping to find a much-needed sense of security in the face of a savage recession – appear to be scrambling back up the EU Mountain.

Just across the Irish Sea, Britain appears to be heading in the opposite direction. The Conservatives may well reflect upon the results of the European elections as a missed opportunity. The Labour government is at unprecedented levels of unpopularity yet the Tories were unable to convert this into the resounding electoral victory that they would have hoped for a couple of months ago. These are two reasons for this failure; firstly, the MPs expenses scandal and secondly, UKIP was able to retain the support of the euro-sceptic centre-right. David Cameron’s party has focused on opposing the Lisbon Treaty and a wider renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the EU. They stop short of calling for the withdrawal from the EU which has proved so successful for UKIP.

Westminster elections command a much wider and engaged campaign – and higher turnout – than European elections and Sunday’s results should not be seen as a test-run for a General Election. The Conservatives will nonetheless want to counter any further erosion of its support by UKIP. The problem for the Tories is a difficult one. The British public is broadly euro-sceptic, with UKIP and other parties representing a significant number of voters who reject EU membership. But further hardening of Tory policy risks re-opening old internal divisions and weakening the party.

A second Irish rejection would solve many of David Cameron’s European headaches: the Lisbon Treaty would be fatally undermined, and it would be easier for Cameron to call for a more fundamental renegotiation of the EU without provoking the consternation of fellow European leaders. However, with Ireland seeking solace in the EU and support growing for Lisbon, a future Conservative government may well have to follow a solo path in trying to eradicate the Lisbon Treaty.