If you cannot convince them, confuse them

Civitas, 20 August 2008

Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France and current holder of the EU Presidency, is finally in the press for the right reasons. He was credited with ‘brokering’ a ceasefire between Russia and Georgia last week; a ceasefire which Russia seems to have no intention of honouring. Nevertheless, Sarkozy seems keen to capitalise on his role in the Georgia-Russia negotiations in order to push on with the agenda of the French Presidency of the EU, writes Laura Kelleher.

In an opinion piece in Le Figaro, Sarkozy attempted to draw a link between the ailing Lisbon Treaty and the crisis in South Ossetia. He argued that ‘had the Lisbon Treaty, which is in the process of being ratified, already been in force, the European Union would have had the institutions it needs to cope with international crises’.
The attempt to link the situation in South Ossetia with the Lisbon Treaty might seem a little opportunistic to some. Regardless, it is unlikely to succeed in promoting the Lisbon Treaty. The Treaty is unlikely to improve the capacity of the EU to act in situations such as that currently unfolding in Georgia. Even if it could deliver a foreign policy machine capable of organizing the conflicting interests of 27 member states into a coherent plan of action, it would still do little to convince those who are sceptical of the Lisbon Treaty.
In the latest Eurobarometer survey, published by the Commission in July 2008, only 2% of those interviewed across the 27 member states cited foreign policy as a primary concern. In Ireland, where the electorate rejected the Lisbon Treaty, less than 1% of those surveyed cited foreign policy as a concern.
The Lisbon Treaty was not rejected by the Irish due to foreign policy concerns. It failed because the ongoing process of integration has happened without explanation and, in large part, without consent. Increased integration has led to increased dissatisfaction with the European project across the member states. This increased dissatisfaction has not been effectively countered by the European Union or member state governments. In short, the Lisbon Treaty has not failed because of what it proposes to do but because the case for it has neither been made strongly nor effectively.
A flash survey conducted by the European Commission in the wake of the Irish referendum confirms this; 68% of Irish voters said the ‘No’ campaign was more convincing, with only 15% of voters saying the same of the ‘Yes’ campaign. This is a clear indication that the Irish electorate, and indeed the wider population of the EU-27, are yet to be convinced of the benefits of the Lisbon Treaty and the European Union.
During the French Presidency of the European Union it will be up to Sarkozy to make a convincing case for the Lisbon Treaty. Sarkozy needs to call upon all his diplomatic skills if he is to revive the Lisbon Treaty. He might look like the statesman this week but, as the debates surrounding the Lisbon Treaty demonstrate, people are increasingly tired of illusions.
It looks as though the EU will continue to fall back on Truman’s favoured policy, that ‘if you cannot convince them, confuse them’.