“No” is the new “Yes”…

claire daley, 21 July 2008

Ireland voted ‘No’ to the Lisbon Treaty On 13th June 2008. The ‘No’ campaign was led by single-issue pressure group Libertas whose exclusive objective was to secure a resounding ‘NO!’ to the Lisbon Treaty.
Well then, congratulations Libertas! Job done! Surely Libertas’ chairman, Declan Ganley can now return to massaging his business millions whilst enjoying the unique satisfaction of a political career that peaked in triumph (certainly a rare political achievement!) … Sadly not – because victory in European politics is rarely sweet, or straightforward…

Far from removing Libertas’ raison d’être, the EU’s ‘bullying’ tactics and attempts to ‘get around the democratic will of the people’ following the Irish referendum are breathing life back into the Libertas campaign, and not simply because it now seems clear that the EU will force Ireland to vote again.
The EU has employed tricky tactics to undermine Ireland’s ‘No’ to the Lisbon Treaty:
1. Claiming the vote lacked a democratic mandate because Ireland has a proportionately small population and therefore it cannot be permitted to stall much needed reform.
2. Claiming that “No” really meant “Yes” – because voters were influenced by further domestic issues.
Therefore, Libertas is taking its lead from the EU; morphing, adapting and simply refusing to admit defeat and go quietly into the night.
Shortly after the Irish voted ‘No’ to the Lisbon Trreaty, Declan Ganley spoke at an event organised by Open Europe and Policy Exchange: “The Irish no vote: what next?”, to justify and explain why the campaign had been successful. And in an announcement this week, Ganley’s arguments are reacting fruition; Libertas’ new tactic is to take the Lisbon Treaty campaign to the supranational level by using the 2009 European parliament elections as “a catalyst to force debate”. Libertas hopes for the 2009 elections to become an EU-wide referendum on the Lisbon Treaty by presenting up to 400 candidates for the election in all 26 countries – including the UK– who were refused a referendum on the treaty.
That is, Libertas will transform into a pan-European political party campaigning exclusively on the Lisbon Treaty. Ganley: “Libertas is the box you put your X in if you want to vote ‘No’ to the Lisbon Treaty. It’s clear, it’s simple. The message will be: we are now giving you a referendum and it’s going to take place in June of next year at the European elections.”
Crucially, concerned with the EU’s Common values – democracy, accountability, and freedom – and insistent that the EU only has legitimacy if it is democratic, Libertas is seeking to enact reform through the EU’s own (and only) democratic mechanisms. This could strengthen its criticism of the undemocratic and unaccountable Lisbon Treaty.
So can Libertas repeat the Irish feat?
It will be a difficult challenge. For starters, campaigning across 26 states will cost a huge amount of money, and Libertas’ proclaimed ‘£75 million from online donations’ will be far from sufficient. Beyond the financial limitations, the campaign will need to be tailored to individual electorates, for example, the Irish “No” campaign met specifically Irish opposition and the same will be true in the remaining 26 member states.
A single issue campaign might not work at a supranational level. Referendums are sympathetic to single issue agendas, but in supranational elections voters might conflate “No to the Lisbon Treaty” with a broader euro sceptic agenda. This could be a real problem for existing parties who plan to campaign on a euro-sceptic agenda because if the Libertas campaign splits the sceptical vote between more parties, they will each receive a sparser share of the vote – effectively allowing pro-EU, and pro-Lisbon Treaty candidates in through the political back door. But Ganley’s insistence that “there is no room for EU scepticism in Ireland” might crucially differentiate the Libertas campaign. Therefore, rather than splitting the euro-sceptic vote, Libertas’ agenda might secure additional votes by convincing Europhiles that there is no inconsistency in their opposing the Lisbon Treaty because, in Ganley’s words, “we need to work together effectively. I’m Irish, I’m European, and I want the EU to work.” Therefore, “No to Lisbon, not the EU’” will be an important detail of Libertas’ professedly not Euro-sceptic but “Brussels-sceptic” campaign.
Delivering a clear, unequivocal message that Europe’s elites cannot misinterpret will be a difficult but crucial task given the experience in Ireland, where the outcome was undermined by EU attempts to “reinterpret” the result. The “No to Lisbon not Yes to Libertas” agenda must be clear and simple – like an Orange advert that carefully avoids mention of mobiles and contracts – No to Lisbon is about common values, but an overtly vague campaign could leave voters asking “but what are they promoting? Looks like a car ad to me?!”
Will repeating the Irish victory at a pan-European level be enough?
Libertas now hopes to counter the EU’s almost comical reaction to the Irish ‘NO’ – European leaders stuck their fingers in their ears, closed their eyes and insisted “We’re not listening!”. But will provoking a pan-European crescendo of “No”, “Nein”, “Non”, “NE!”, “NIE!!”, “NAK!!!” generate a chorus of dissent loud enough to deafen Brussels into accepting the will of the people? Possibly not. But the crucial difference is that this time, Libertas will not simply seek to voice the public’s opinion. Unlike the referendum, the new battle plan is to “establish a Europe-wide voting bloc which would have a strong mandate to block the treaty” – these new representatives will infiltrate Brussels.