Basescu vs. Tariceanu

James Gubb, 23 April 2007

All is not well in Romania. The country is currently in political turmoil, with the parliament’s move to suspend President Traian Basescu last Thursday by a vote of 322 to 108, and the impasse looks set to continue. But more concerning for the EU is that it is symptomatic of the Romania’s inability to proceed with reform along the lines set down in the final decision to admit the country – in particular that of tackling corruption.

The recent charade began when President Basescu produced a note live on television, written by Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu, that asked him ‘to have a word with the prosecutors’ investigating Dinu Patriciu, a close political ally of the PM. Mr Tariceanu admitted to sending the note and Mr Basescu, with some justification as it seems, accused him of using his position to unduly influence a criminal investigation. In return Mr Tariceanu launched a tirade against the President, accusing him of undermining his government and of engaging in dubious business deals involving state contracts, putting pressure on the judiciary and interfering in favour of interest groups. Romania’s constitutional court has, thus far, said these claims are groundless.
But the immediate upshot of it all was the decision taken by Mr Tariceanu to announce a new coalition government minus the President’s Democratic Party (PD), but with the ‘support’ of the Social Democrats – aptly described by the Economist as ‘sleazy’. Crucially this removed the justice minister, Monica Macovei – a key architect of the political and judicial reforms that brought Romania into the EU – from her post. Needless to say her reformist zeal had earned her few friends in Romania’s elite. And nor had the President; elected in 2004 on a platform of anti-corruption. Mr Tariceanu also took the opportunity to suspend elections to the European Parliament, due to take place in May, to later in the year. He cited an ‘inappropriate domestic climate’ – i.e. he thought his party would get a hammering in the polls. The final move was the parliamentary vote to remove the President. By law Mr Basescu now faces an impeachment referendum within 30 days. As the FT reports, he may instead choose to resign and force a presidential election – which he would probably win. Whether he does or doesn’t, the continuation of reform will be a long and arduous road. If he wins, he has to work with Mr Tariceanu; if he doesn’t then alternatives don’t look too promising. The current ‘caretaker’ president is Nicolae Vacaroiu – a figure generally seen as an opponent of reform.
In one sense the current feud can be dismissed as ‘a stupid dispute between the president and the prime minister’. The economy is still growing at 7%, inflation is at a modest 4% and democracy is certainly not under threat. Yet an assessment by the Commission on Romania’s progress due in June is likely to be highly critical. According to Transparency International, Romania is still the most corrupt country in Europe; few big corruption cases have been resolved and legislation remains incoherent (though one has to have some sympathy here, given the size of the acquis communautaire). Romania also has the second-worst record at the European Court of Human Rights (The Economist).
The EU’s decision to add ‘safeguard’ clauses, relating to continued judicial and anti-corruption reform, to its decision to admit Romania (and Bulgaria) earlier this year appears vindicated. The attachment of the clauses – which threaten the withdrawal of some 19bn euros earmarked for Romania in structural funds if reform stalls – caused concern that Romania would only ever be a ‘third-class’ EU member. Yet a country does not suddenly lose its recent past once it joins the EU, and the EU is beginning to learn it holds much less sway over political direction and reform in a country once it is ‘part of the club’ than when it is trying to join. One only has to look at the stalled reform in many of the 2004 EU accession countries to see this. Ultimately, of course, it must be up to Romania find a way out of its current malaise, but the EU may well need the sticks as well as carrots to help to persuade it.