The EU-Turkish refugee agreement solves very little
Jonathan Lindsell, 2 December 2015
At a summit this weekend EU leaders and the Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu agreed a deal on asylum and Turkish access to Europe. Turkey will try to slow numbers travelling through to Greece and accept those economic migrants the EU returns to Turkey, in exchange for €3bn and enhanced visa-free movement rights for Turkish citizens to the Schengen area. EU members unwilling to participate in the visa programme may be expected to contribute more to the fund, which could rise the longer Turkey hosts so many itinerant refugees.
This deal, heralded as a breakthrough by Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel, is the result of months of negotiation and pressure. The Front National had pushed France’s government to support stronger border measures even before the horrific Paris attacks, and public opinion has turned against Germany’s summer welcoming policy. Even Sweden accepted it cannot keep taking asylum seekers unless other members accept a greater share.
However, the Turkish agreement will not have a large impact on numbers. This is simply because the majority of those travelling through Turkey are genuine Syrian, Iraqi or Afghan asylum seekers, with the right to claim asylum in the EU. The deportation agreement will not cover them. Economic migrants are more prevalent from Africa or former Yugoslavia, but the majority of asylum seekers from Turkey are successful when they claim.
In Slovenia, Hungary and the Czech Republic, both politicians and people have indicated their strong unwillingness to host large numbers of non-Christians. Electorates there are unlikely to be happy that, to reduce numbers of irregular Syrian incomers, 77 million Turks will gain the legal right to entry. (This right will be similar to Americans in the EU, three months to travel or take short education courses, but not degrees or work.) It will be politically hard for Francois Hollande’s government to sell too, especially coming a year before presidential elections in which nationalist Marine Le Pen is a strong contender.
The agreement also speeds up the process of Turkish accession to the EU while lessening pressure on Ahmet Davutoglu to address human rights concerns. The international community is worried by the treatment of minorities and journalists – a leading Kurdish lawyer was killed just last week and unrelatedly two prominent opposition writers were arrested on espionage charges. Previously, the EU used the high standards of accession criteria to encourage stability, development and the rule of law in applicants.
The magnitude of problems in the agreement is indicated by the variety of its critics. Ukip leader Nigel Farage claimed the ‘collective insanity’ was another reason for Brexit. On the opposite side, liberal former Belgian prime minister and commissioner Guy Verhofstadt wrote an excoriating critique on politico.eu.
The EU’s leaders are publicly backing Turkey as the main solution for reducing refugee numbers, but their optimism is misplaced. The agreement encourages the Turkish government when it should be being challenged, its costs will spiral, and it will do little to win over Europeans concerned by the numbers of newcomers.