Turkey’s election upset may lay the foundation for EU integration
Jonathan Lindsell, 9 June 2015
‘A European Union without Turkey at its heart is not stronger but weaker… not more secure but less… not richer but poorer… I’m here to make the case for Turkey’s membership of the EU. And to fight for it.’
– David Cameron, July 2010.
During an address to the Turkish parliament, Cameron promised to ‘pave the road’ for Turkish accession to the Union. More surprisingly, he reaffirmed this in Ankara in 2014.
The results of Turkey’s general election on Sunday may allow Cameron to put his money closer to his mouth. Previously, Turkey’s overt direction of travel meant that other member states would always be likely to block accession and Cameron could remain as rhetorically amicable as he liked.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s current President and founder-leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), has led his country since 2002 (previously as Prime Minister). Erdogan’s position grew stronger over this period, with AKP gaining seats at each election until last weekend. This gave Erdogan the confidence to construct a mammoth presidential palace and propose constitutional amendments that would have given him near-dictatorial powers.
To propose a referendum to amend the constitution, AKP needed a supermajority of 3/5 parliamentary seats. Sunday was, then, seen as a pre-referendum on Erdogan’s ambitions, and the answer has been very clear. AKP lost 53 seats and its overall majority, while the opposition Kemalist Republican People’s Party (CHP) gained seven.
The second major upset was the liberal pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)’s success. HDP burst the high 10% proportional representation threshold to win 80 seats. In contrast to AKP, which used socially conservative, anti-European and ethno-nationalist arguments in the election campaign, the HDP made a point of respecting all ethnicities, women’s rights and LGBTQ reform.
What happens next is unclear. Both Erdogan and Ahmet Davutoglu, the AKP Prime Minister, accept the need for coalition. However their most obvious allies, the rightwing Nationalist Movement, already ruled out a deal.
A grand coalition including the HDP would represent EU accession progress: many of the Commissions’ concerns have been over Turkey’s executive power, press freedom, and ethnic/gender minority rights – exactly the liberal party’s choice issues.
Europe relies on Turkey to stop irregular migration and ISIL fighters moving in or out. One of Cameron’s 2014 meeting’s achievements was an intelligence-sharing agreement. Tied to Europe by Nato and an unwieldy customs union, whoever governs Turkey will soon need to confront the European question as they are forced into TTIP and the Canadian FTA (CETA), neither of which they negotiated.
Roger Bootle wrote in 2014: ‘The litmus test for the desirable form of European association is that it must be one in which Turkey can play a full and equal part.’ The issues of Turkish free movement and Cyprus remain, but a possible de-escalation of nationalism could help resolve the latter while Bulgarian-model transition controls address the former. With reform and time, accession might be achieved. It’s just possible that Turkey could take up the place Britain vacates.
Jonathan Lindsell is EU research fellow at Civitas. He is currently investigating different options for a ‘two speed Europe’.
The promotion of a country with 70 million Muslims as an EU member is one of Cameron’s most reckless policies. NuTory Boy is a chancer and makes a habit of political gambling by agreeing to referenda on AV, promising no rise in IT, NI or VAT in this Parliament and committing to reducing the deficit to nil and net immigration to tens of thousands by the end of the last Parliament.
The idea that the British people or any other population in the EU would welcome 70 million Muslims into the EU (or the EEA) is pure fantasy because not only would all 28 EU countries have to agree, France and the RoI would have to have a vote on it because they are constitutionally obliged to and the UK would also have to have a vote unless a government repealed the Act which promises a referendum on any fundamental Treaty change .
In all probability NuTory Boy probably thinks that no such referendum will happen while he is PM or that the membership would be vetoed by one or more of the other EU members. Nonetheless, NuTory Boy’s enthusiastic endorsement of Turkey’s membership is a hostage to fortune.
Already the more gullible of political commentators in the UK are citing the Turkish election result as being evidence that democracy can work in an Muslim state. This is pie-in-the sky. The likely result of Erdogan not getting a majority is for either Erdogan to take power in a coup or for the Turkish army to step in as they have traditionally done in uncertain political times. The fact that the Turkish economy is tanking will add to the likelihood of political upheaval.