The EU-sceptic campaign must control its glee over Greece
Jonathan Lindsell, 30 June 2015
A minority of EU Outers are presenting views online and in the papers that could be read as gloating over Greece. Greece’s imminent default and likely exit from the single currency is an all-too-tempting chance to say ‘I told you so!’
The events that brought Greece to this position are held up, variously, as proof that the Eurogroup’s leaders and institutions are ideologically blind; that Greece (and by extension, other Mediterranean states) is feckless and unable to control spending; that the single currency was doomed from the start; and that British supporters of the euro are intellectually bankrupt.
Separately, the eurozone and Greek leaders’ inability to compromise is held high as evidence that David Cameron’s renegotiation will achieve nothing. Sceptics’ message is either that the EU does not have time for Cameron’s demands, or that it has the time but will refuse. Reform is impossible so we must leave.
EU-sceptics would do well not to appear triumphalist when discussing the fiscal hardships of a state that has already suffered five years of severe austerity. This is a growing ethical and humanitarian problem for a member of a club that Britain is still in. Using Greece to score rhetorical points in support of Brexit may feel like vindication, but to wavering voters in the EU referendum, it could easily appear callous or reinforce the stereotype of sceptics being anti-European rather than anti-EU. In short, dancing over the euro’s tatters would be tactically short-sighted.
Secondly, the very implacability of the Eurogroup which makes the current crisis seem undemocratic and distasteful could be used by EU supporters later. If Outers paint a confident, positive picture of Britain outside the EU during campaigning, their opponents will remind the audience: this all depends on EU agreement, and if you all remember June 2015, the EU won’t budge. An exit agreement will need the approval of all the EU states unless it is a clean break to the WTO option, a path even many sceptics dislike. The market is already showing how much punishes instability.
A common EU-sceptic refrain runs along the lines: Europe sells more to Britain than Britain to Europe so it’s in their best interests to offer free trade if we leave. This may be valid, but the Greek experience suggests some EU states do not evaluate their best interests anything like UK commentators do. Greek default is not in the single currency or the single market’s best interests. Again, focusing on Eurogroup obduracy over Greek loans only highlights how hard-nosed the continent’s leaders might be during UK exit discussions.
Later today Greece’s situation may get even worse as an IMF default starts a domino-effect of linked defaults. Of course it is important to discuss the currency and unions’ failings, and to discuss constructive measures, but sceptics must ensure they do not go overboard with their condemnation or they risk alienating moderates and highlighting Brexit’s own difficulties.
Jonathan Lindsell is EU research fellow at Civitas.