The EU referendum question: does it make a difference?

Lotte van Buuren, 28 May 2015

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” As Downing Street just confirmed that this will be the question posed to voters in the EU referendum before tabling the bill, it raises questions over whether the wording matters. Unlike countries such as Switzerland, where referendums are held so frequently that the electorate may not even know the question before casting a vote, the British public will most probably have at least a year to prepare for the referendum. The vast majority of people who will go out and vote on the day of the referendum will have made up their minds before reading the question on the ballot paper.

Yet the phrasing of the referendum question does make a difference when it comes to how voters form their opinions about membership of the European Union. The latest YouGov / Sunday Times survey indicates that about a fifth of eligible voters are still unsure – whether these people will vote and how they do will have a decisive impact on the outcome as 44 per cent would vote to stay in and 36 per cent would prefer to leave the EU. It is easier for the Yes campaign than for the No campaign in a referendum to draw attention to opportunities and benefits – being hopeful and positive is more likely to enthuse and persuade people.

The negotiations on the promised substantive reforms of the UK’s relationship with the EU will certainly be tough. The well-timed deal between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande to strengthen ties between Eurozone countries without treaty change suggests a confrontational stance behind the rhetoric of commitment to reform. Even though British PM David Cameron has not yet given up hope on EU treaty change and aims to find allies in the Netherlands and Poland before the EU summit next month, it seems unlikely that he will succeed in breaking Franco-German resistance. In order to sell alternative, less thorough reforms to the British people as a new dawn for UK relations with the EU and to ultimately secure a Yes vote, it may be key for Cameron to be leading the Yes campaign given that it allows for a positive framing of the debate.

In addition, the wording of the referendum question may have another, more fundamental benefit for the Yes campaign. In contrast to the proposed question refused by the Electoral Commission – “Do you think that the United Kingdom should be a member of the European Union?” – the approved version contains the word “remain”. The commission included this word because it clarifies that the UK is currently an EU member state, while the rejected question could suggest that this is not case. More crucially, the approved question indicates the status quo – voting yes suggests continuity, clarity and certainty, while disagreeing may cause disruption, uncertainty and chaos. In this way, the question subtly evokes the worries many have about Britain leaving the EU and allows the Yes campaign to appeal to this fear of the unknown while still remaining the hopeful and positive camp.