The Conservatives’ EU migrant promises risk repeating past mistakes

Jonathan Lindsell, 14 April 2015

The Conservative manifesto will require migrants to work in Britain for four years before they can claim any kind of benefits. Theresa May, promoting the policy on Monday, said this would mean the average migrant working fulltime would pay £22,600 in tax before becoming eligible for anything. Migrants will never be able to claim child benefit or child tax credit for children living abroad. Ukip proposes a comparable five year limit.

This change is designed to deter migrants who are drawn here by the welfare state. Net immigration last year was almost 300,000. The policy sits neatly with another pledge to require hospitals to challenge migrants’ right to care and check residency documentation and European Health Cards. The current government has already stopped migrants claiming benefits within six months of entry, and aims to deport those who do don’t find work in that window.

There are some positive signs for the viability of May’s plans in the EU. In November 2014 the European Court of Justice ruled that Germany was within its rights to deny a subsistence allowance to Elisabeta Dano, a Romanian already receiving child benefit in Germany. This was because the allowance was for jobseekers, but Ms Dano had made no attempt to seek work and was not entitled under residency laws, since she did not have sufficient resources to reside in Germany unsupported.

This ruling suggests the EU is sympathetic to member states cracking down on clear-cut instances of ‘benefits tourism’ where the benefit in question is non-contributory. Theresa May wants to go much further, however, to stop migrants claiming in-work benefits like Working Tax Credit and Housing Benefit. This will be much harder to agree in the EU, although if parties such as Front National and the Danish Peoples’ Party succeed in upcoming elections, the Conservatives might have better luck with a reformist alliance.

There is a danger, though, that even passing these reforms will fail to achieve Tory aims. Through this parliament, the Home Office has failed to present the European Commission with evidence that welfare tourism is a problem, or that benefits specifically (rather than living standards and a growing economy) are attracting incomers.

Some migrants may be deterred, but others may accept lower and lower wages without the welfare system safety net, and with the need to be working to remain. This could exacerbate the wage deflation effect on native labour. Demos also raised concerns that aggressively pursuing migrants for NHS charges could deter sick people from accessing help, which would pose a wide risk to public health if they were suffering with communicable diseases such as Ebola.

Labour’s manifesto treats the EU comparatively safely, merely claiming that Labour will ‘secure reforms to immigration and social security rules’. In her ambition, May could over-promise and under-deliver, just as the Tory drive to limit net immigration to ‘tens of thousands’ failed. In moving in Ukip’s direction but failing to address voters’ actual concerns, the policy might actually boost Ukip in 2020.