The EU implications of Pegida’s Newcastle march
Jonathan Lindsell, 3 March 2015
On Saturday the German group Pegida (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the West) hosted its first event in the UK. It has already had small showings in Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Sweden.
After considerable media hype, the rally turned out to be small – a mere 350 Pegida supporters attended – and outnumbered by roughly 2,000 anti-racist protesters gathered to oppose them under the ‘Newcastle Unites’ banner, organised by NUFC.
Arguably, there has never been a riper opportunity for anti-Islamic populists to swell support. Mohammed Emwazi has just been identified as an Islamic State executioner. Memories of the Charlie Hebdo and Copenhagen shootings are raw in most Europeans’ memories, while the killing of Lee Rigby and events of 7/7 remain salient.
In Germany, Pegida is often lumped together with ‘Alternative fuer Deutschland’ as a general anti-establishment protest party, opposed to all immigration (rather than specifically that of extremist Muslims), wary of globalisation, critical of the EU. There has not yet been a formal alliance between the groups, though they often share members and platforms. In cities like Dresden, Pegida rallies have attracted tens of thousands – although there too, they are usually outnumbered by moderates. German Pegida itself has been split by internal division, its founder’s apparent glorification of Hitler, and its new leader breaking off a splinter group ‘Direct Democracy for Europe’ in repudiation of members’ racial views.
The Newcastle event aimed to show Pegida was neither racist nor anti-immigrant. Spokesman Matthew Pope claimed the movement was about integration, questioning sharia courts and Muslim schools ‘separating the Muslim community from British society’. Likewise Marion Rogers told the BBC, ‘We are not fascist… Islamisation of the West in our books is extremist Islam, extremist Muslims, basically enforcing their beliefs on us and making us feel like second class citizens in our own country.’ However, National Front banners were spotted in the Newcastle rally and former EDL members were expected to attend.
The image that UK Pegida presented does not appear to be that of a moderate group against religious coercion. It may not be a coincidence that the proudly neo-Nazi ‘White Man March’ has also chosen Newcastle for a rally.
Several years ago, Ukip leader Nigel Farage made a conscious strategic choice to highlight the link between the EU and free immigration – and this has worked very well. Ukip will probably win general election seats and remain a thorn in the Establishment’s side.
However, by associating Ukip so closely with anti-migrant sentiment, Farage’s initiative may ultimately backfire. The latest Yougov poll shows that in an EU referendum, ‘IN’ would win by 10 points. ‘OUT’ led by 20 points in 2012. Programmes such as ‘Meet the Ukippers’ and Channel 4’s ‘Ukip: The First 100 Days’ contribute to the idea that, however many moderate supporters Ukip has, it courts worrying elements too. This appears to repel mainstream voters. If these more troubling anti-migrant protesters stay prominent, Ukip may win the battle of gaining national representation, but lose the Brexit war.
“…however many moderate supporters Ukip has, it courts worrying elements too. This appears to repel mainstream voters. If these more troubling anti-migrant protesters stay prominent, Ukip may win the battle of gaining national representation, but lose the Brexit war.”
Point 1 – It is a mistake to imagine that the turnout at events such as the Newcastle march is a good indication of the anger and resentment amongst the British about mass immigration. For example, the recent British Future report found that 25% of those questioned wanted not merely immigration stopped but all immigrants expelled from Britain.
Point 2 – While anyone demonstrating against immigration and its effects risks being arrested and charged with criminal offences it is scarcely surprising that few turn out.
Point 3 – Even it criminal charges are not brought , people demonstrating against immigration are likely to be labelled as racist by the media and, particularly in public sector work, lose their jobs. That is a big disincentive to not to demonstrate.
Point 4 – Voters generally understand that while we are in the EU Britain cannot have any meaningful control over its borders. Provided there is a political party in the mainstream like Ukip willing to put the case for leaving the EU on the grounds that we cannot control our borders, voters who might be undecided or against Brexit for reasons other than immigration will begin to think again about immigration and the way it is tied to the EU and see that Brexit is the only way of solving the immigration question. That could well decide them to move into the Brexit camp regardless of any non-immigration fears they may have about Brexit.