Swedish fractures in the centre offer lessons to UK parties
Jonathan Lindsell, 23 September 2014
Sweden’s Social Democrats won 31.2% of the vote in the September 14th general election, meaning a return to government after eight years. The outgoing prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s centre-right Moderates lost 23 Riksdag seats. Meanwhile the far-right Sweden Democrats grew significantly, collecting 12.9% of the votes, which translates into 49 seats through proportional representation. This is a meaningful gain on the 9.7% won in May’s European elections as it upsets the traditional blocs’ balance.
Reinfeldt’s Moderates are usually compared to the modern Conservatives as both have tried to soften their image and position themselves towards the centre. Sweden’s finance minister Anders Borg helped inspire Chancellor George Osborne’s fiscal caution. Many ideas seen in Britain, including profitmaking’s greater role in healthcare and the spread of free schools, have Swedish counterparts.
However the Moderates have felt a backlash for their privatisation policies, a danger the Tories are surely aware of. Sweden has had decent economic growth the last few years, enough to deliver tax cuts despite the neighbouring eurozone’s turbulence. The Moderates’ fall indicates that delivering a recovery might not be enough to keep the Conservatives in power.
For EU reform David Cameron has also lost a close ally in Reinfeldt, one of the sympathetic ‘Gang of Four’ along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch leader Mark Rutte. UK diplomats will now face working against a Sweden hostile to Conservative ambitions to restrict EU immigration and prioritise the City.
Sweden has lessons for Labour too. The Nordic country is a model for Ed Miliband’s British vision, given its comprehensive welfare state, commitment to egalitarianism and robust economy.
Stefan Löfven is the Social Democrats’ leader but does not command a majority. He intends to form a government with the Greens (6.8%) and possibly the Left (5.7%), parties he judges ‘anti-racist’. Migration played a large part in election debates – 3.7% of Swedes voted for the Feminist Initiative who campaigned on an explicitly pro-migrant platform against the Swedish Democrats but failed to reach the 4% threshold for parliamentary representation. Miliband must note how the issue split the left’s vote share but he must tread a careful line to please both ‘blue Labour’, concerned with migrant pressure on jobs and welfare, and pro-migration liberals. Matching Cameron’s EU referendum promise could do just that.
Meanwhile Löfven was buoyed this week with indications that the Moderates would cooperate with a centre-left coalition in key votes such as budgets, avoiding total deadlock. According to the Swedish system Löfven gains Riksdag approval if a majority of MPs do not oppose him – a government form without any supportive votes. This might aid stability but will leave Löfven without the dynamism to effect real change, only able to maintain current policies and ‘isolate the Sweden Democrats’.
Miliband must be aware of the possibility of a tiny majority or weak coalition. By borrowing the Liberal Democrats’ idea of a mansion tax today, he may be attempting to forge a stronger working alliance before the country has even voted.