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Cameron’s EU promise: fiddling with Chekhov’s Gun

Jonathan Lindsell, 29 April 2014

“I would not be prime minister of a government unless we could carry out our pledge of an in-out referendum.”

David Cameron announced, and repeated, that he would not remain in command next parliament if he couldn’t deliver his 2017 EU referendum promise. This is a rearguard action to stoke Tory support for May’s European Parliament elections, but also a huge gamble.

Given the Liberal Democrat’s EU position – no referendum without treaty change – Cameron’s pledge means a future coalition is impossible with him leading. Either the Conservatives win the general election outright, or Dave’s gone. He’s using his finest ink to draft his own death warrant.

An absolute Tory win is possible, but electoral odds are against it. Constituency boundaries haven’t been redrawn, Miliband leads the polls, and UKIP are leeching Conservative sympathisers.

 

Meanwhile the City’s forces are arrayed against Cameron’s position. Bloomberg, Oliver Wyman, Clifford Chance and TheCityUK all declared ‘In’ this month. Rival lobby group Business For Britain called their stance ‘scaremongering’, but it was enough for Danny Alexander, potential LD leader or kingmaker, to conclude that Brexit would kill the economy “stone dead.” He said, “Pulling out of the EU is the very last thing our country needs…All the progress that has been built on the hard work of millions…would be squandered. We will be left isolated in the margins and our future prosperity will be limited for generations.” He labelled UKIP and anti-EU Tories as the “worst kind of snake oil salesmen…peddling a false cure.”

Might this mean a Tory leadership crisis following a mildly successful General Election? Cameron’s confidence remains bullish. A referendum would be a ‘red line’ in coalition negotiations he confirmed, reiterating: “I would not have set off down this path unless I thought I could deliver a good deal for Britain and a referendum. I can deliver both of those things.” His optimism isn’t groundless: despite UKIP’s advance, YouGov polling highlights the curious trend of EU ‘In’ voters winning a hypothetical referendum.

Sceptic parties like UKIP, and others further Right like the French National Front or Dutch Freedom Party, are expected to grow this May. With more MEPs blocking EU proposals, Cameron’s renegotiation strategy may be hopeless.

Tomorrow the ECJ rules on George Osborne’s challenge to the  financial transaction tax. There’s a high chance that No.10 will lose.

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