The only ‘Party of In’: what arguments will Clegg pick?
Jonathan Lindsell, 10 March 2014
The Daily Mail, Guardian and Times all speculate that Nick Clegg’s Lib Dem leadership is teetering this morning. His riposte is surprising – to double down on his love for the EU at his party’s spring conference. He is to debate twice with UKIP leader Nigel Farage, on LBC radio on 26th March, and on BBC2 on 2nd April, each for an hour.
There may be method to his mania however: by painting the Liberals as the one true ‘party of in’ and the others as parochial and sceptic or dithering and divided, Clegg targets a serious voting pool. At the moment his party is on about 10% in national polls (latest YouGov) but surveyed attitudes on an EU referendum show 30-49% pro-union feeling (2013 polls). Clegg probably won’t capture that entire constituency, but he’s certainly boxing clever and clinging onto the coattails of Farage’s media fanfare.
So how will Clegg argue? [Rebuttal in hyperlinks]
– Regional peace and stability is frequently highlighted by pro-Europeans. They applaud the absence of conflict since 1945, the integration of Communist and former Yugoslav states, and the EU’s growing contribution to peace or disarmament talks with Syria and Iran. European Neighbourhood Policy has absorbed Bulgaria and Romania as democratic states, and is seen as influencing Serbia, Kosovo, Albania and Turkey. Even Ukraine could join in time. [1]
– National prosperity – Clegg repeats that 3,000,000 British jobs rely on EU membership, and households benefit £1,100-3,300 annually. This perceived benefit derives from free trade, harmonised regulations, boosted R&D funding, Britain being more attractive for Foreign Direct Investment, and banking dynamism resting on free capital transfers and banking’s ‘single passport’. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
– International clout wielded by a 500,000,000-citizen bloc is seen as opening markets like South Korea, South Africa, Mexico and potentially America (T-TIP). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
– Worker protection and savings – Europe arguably gave us statutory holidays, overtime, sick pay, pension and maternity rules. Supporters point to perks such as lower airline fares and mobile tariffs. [1]
– Environmental and policing cooperation is more effective argue Europhiles, e.g. raiding the Costa del Crime, combating sex/drug trafficking, or co-coordinating carbon pricing. [1, 2, 3]
– Free migration is great, contend Vince Cable et al: EU migrants help British economically and culturally, while 1,400,000 UK students and workers live abroad. Moreover, we have easier holidays. [1, 2]
– Reformable from the Inside – Europhiles point to progress on fisheries, CAP, banking regulation and European Parliament power to show that the EU can and does improve itself in the face of criticism – even in governance, constitution and institutional structure. [1]
– There’s Room for Growth by enhancing free movement of services and harmonising transport and the digital economy. BIS claims this could boost UK GDP by 7% [1]
– Expect Clegg to argue Exit cannot be smooth. There are many models for ‘Brexit’, but Eurosceptics need to rally around one and stick to it, or leave themselves open to charges of incoherence and short-sightedness. Civitas are researching this very issue, so watch this space.