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Migration’s effects are more social than economic

Nigel Williams, 6 March 2014

Paul Collier expresses the view in his book Exodus that economic effects of migration are far outweighed by the social. It is a neat summary that illuminates much of the current immigration debate. If he is right, and there is plenty of evidence to support his view, then it moves the debate further into subjective and personal territory. Migration, he says, increases diversity, which is a good thing in itself until it has the observed effect on a society of reducing levels of trust, co-operation and generosity. At a point that depends on the individual point of view, diversity becomes too much of a good thing.

Opposing ministers

Lack of trust or generosity is not something one admits with pride. In mutual relationships, it cannot all be blamed on the visitors. It is safer to stick to the economics. Costing jobs or money is a morally safer objection than engendering a loss of trust. Two coalition ministers are making opposing speeches about the economics of migration today, while the Newsnight and the Guardian are making a fuss about supposedly suppressed government research. Vince Cable  is due to say, ‘We just have to stop treating people coming to work here as if they are a problem.’ whereas for James Brokenshire, migration ‘forces wages down and house prices up’.

Theresa May cited in 2012 an estimate that 23 jobs are lost to native workers for every 100 migrants. It came from a carefully worded report from the Migration Advisory Committee and its conclusions are less bald and more restricted than the Home Secretary suggests.  Its mathematical model resulted in a ‘ballpark’ estimate of how many lost jobs were ‘initially associated’ with migration from outside the EU. The skill lies in knowing how far that estimate can be applied to reality. Results are inevitably different between times of prosperity and downturn; between short-term displacement and the possibility of longer-term expansion and more jobs to go round. Even if this extra research provides a very different ‘ballpark’ estimate it will still be from an observational study, showing what its model extracts from a particular collection of circumstances.

Association versus causation

Although observational studies can only claim to find an ‘association’, not a direct causal link, they nevertheless provide evidence. Whether it is native unemployment rising or falling in tandem with migration, increasingly erratic weather on similar timescales to consumption of fossil fuel, or reduced offending when prison sentences get longer, the association is a sign that the two things may well be connected. Until a better explanation is found, it is irresponsible to dismiss the association.

Sleeping rough

Meanwhile, the social consequences continue. In February the rough sleeping statistics were published for Autumn 2013, just before the onset of the wettest winter known to England. Rough sleeping may rank even above dependence on food banks as a level of hardship we would not wish on another human being. It contains shocking information from the charity Broadway about the 6,437 people found sleeping rough in London over twelve months. Over 3,000 people were of non-UK nationality and 1,772 were from the EU accession countries of 2004 and 2007, including 615 from Poland. 2,923 UK nationals sleeping rough in London is enough of an issue by itself but migration doubles it and more. If at the same time, foreign investors are acquiring London property to keep it empty, it is a clear sign that we can ill afford to reduce our co-operation and generosity any further.

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