Professor Dustmann replies to Civitas criticisms

Nigel Williams, 4 February 2014

Following criticism of his report’s use of statistics from Professor Mervyn Stone, David Green and me, Professor Christian Dustmann has published a reply on the website of UCL’s Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration.

Some disagreement remains but it will not be constructive to repeat the points at issue in a cycle of mutual contradiction. The points have been made and the reader needs to judge whether they have been answered.

If there is consensus, it is around the point that fiscal contribution is quite a narrow concept. Net contribution over the first years after arrival may differ from contribution over a lifetime. Civitas has a paper in preparation that will explore the difference in more detail. Where people describe a positive short-term contribution, they usually repeat that it is small. For another assessment of the argument, the Oxford Migration Observatory is due to update its briefing later this month.

When an effect is small, it is all the more reason to be careful about the accuracy of the statistics.