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Will Hungary be expelled from the EU?

Jonathan Lindsell, 29 July 2014

I thought I would partake in the proud tradition of using as headlines ‘questions to which the answer is No’. At least, not yet. In amidst the horror of MH17, the sickening news from Gaza and Israel, and David Cameron’s ‘put Britain first’ immigration PR stunt, you would be forgiven for not knowing why Hungary is flirting with an EU reprimand.

Hungary has been controlled by Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party since 2010, following an earlier 1998-2002 spell. Fidesz consistently championed Hungary assuming responsibility for 3m ethnic Hungarians living in lands confiscated after World War I (mostly Romania).  In opposition Fidesz confirmed this irredentism by supporting a 2004 referendum awarding ethnic Hungarians citizenship.

This Sunday, Orbán applauded his own earlier conviction, declaring that he retained a 2/3 supermajority in the April 2014 election thanks to non-residents. Ethnic Hungarians hadn’t gained voting rights in 2004 as that referendum failed to meet the required voter turnout. Instead they received dual-citizenship in 2012 when Hungary’s new constitution came into force. This constitution has been condemned by the UN, EU, Council of Europe and Amnesty International for reasons including extraterritoriality, free speech, judicial oversight and reproductive rights.

Moreover, the constitution’s Article D, which asserts that Hungary “shall bear responsibility for the fate of Hungarians living outside its borders,” appears to give Hungary the same pretext for cross-border meddling as Russia’s Vladimir Putin used in Georgia and Ukraine. Speaking of Ukraine, Hungary has been cheerfully blocking EU moves towards greater Kremlin sanctions and recently received a 10bn EURO loan from Moscow to upgrade a nuclear plant.

Orbán previously justified his increasingly presidential manner as necessary to escape communism’s shadow, but has a new nemesis: foreigners. He’s repeatedly railed at international funding for charities and NGOs in Hungary, particularly after his policies caused the suspension of the EEA/Norway Grants, sums paid by EFTA members for EU free trade.  The ‘Viktator’ now attacks foreign influence with great venom as much of it supports opposition parties. He is also courting risk by threatening to unilaterally write off foreign-denominated state debt by converting it to forints.

Comparing himself to Barack Obama in terms of overstepping an office’s authority, Orbán belittled legislature scrutiny and asked, “How long could I stay in office if parliament could sue me for overstepping my authority?” He asserted that “the era of liberal democracies is over” and that “copying Western (state) models is a kind of provincialism that will kill us.”

Hungary was forced to compromise with the European Commission on the finer points of free speech and religious freedom, but remains bellicose in supporting neo-authoritarianism despite a limited mandate and treaty obligations. The EU has no formal ejection process but could bully a member into exit with a suspension of voting rights, repeated fines and court challenges. This would take time, and more importantly would require resolute cooperation between the other 27 member states. It appears that while the EU is free to meddle with UK law, it cannot control a truly dangerous member.

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