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What does the Queen’s Speech have in store on immigration?

Jonathan Lindsell, 3 June 2014

With Ukip’s victory drums still ringing in their ears, the coalition has been working on measures to woo temporary Nigel Farage supporters in a thin Queen’s Speech. We don’t know precisely what’s in the State Opening of Parliament programme tomorrow, but the speculation game has begun.

The Daily Telegraph suggests new powers are expected to discourage immigration, including deporting unemployed Europeans after six months and a law to discourage British firms employing cheap labour.

These powers, if passed, would add to Theresa May’s ‘hostile environment’ and may prompt the European Commission to label Britain ‘nasty’ again. Depending on how the laws are worded, they could actually break EU treaties. On one hand Britain might be fined, on the other, it would be following the spirit of David Green’s suggestion that Parliament should call the EU’s bluff and assert its own sovereignty.

There are other migrant related, Ukip friendly proposals in the rumour mill if you look closely. The Daily Telegraph suggests that we will see landlords, transporters and haulage companies who knowingly work with criminal gangs being prosecuted as accomplices. The new crime could carry a five year jail sentence.

Part of Ukip’s migration campaign argued Eastern Europeans are more likely to be involved in crime. Mr Farage highlighted Romanians in his infamous LBC interview, but could equally have mentioned the Bulgarian, Italian or Polish mafias, or less organised pickpocketing gangs reported in Paris and Madrid.  New powers wouldn’t just be a signal that Ukip voters’ voices are being heeded, it would enable the Home Office to harry some EU migrants from another angle, and dissuade landlords from welcoming migrants uncritically.

Similar effects might be achieved by passing a modern slavery bill, which would increase the people smuggling sentence from 14 years to life.  This is intended to address people trafficking, but would have side-effects of decreasing migration (by the smugglers themselves) and even potentially increasing forced emigration (since EU citizens jailed here can be moved to their home country’s prison system).

These initiatives are not just Tory dreams. Labour’s John Denham, former cabinet minister, argues today that: “We should work actively to reduce the number of EU migrants coming.” Denham, formerly Ed Miliband’s parliamentary aide, contended: “Many of the EU citizens entitled to come here are people we would reject if they came from anywhere else… For the foreseeable future, it would be better if fewer EU migrants came here. That way we can create a more balanced labour market and reduce future pressures on services and housing.”

The Tory manifesto might hold yet stronger measures to block poor or Eastern Europeans coming here for work. Meanwhile, David Cameron is fighting Angela Merkel on her pro-federalist choice for Commission President, and Tony Blair is manoeuvring offstage. These negotiations matter, as Britain might get the ‘free movement’ reforms the Conservatives want via EU renegotiation if the Commission is sympathetic. If Tony Blair or Chancellor Merkel succeed, renegotiation would be that much harder, and ‘Brexit’ that much more likely.

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