Philip Hammond will be Tories’ axeman in the EU
Jonathan Lindsell, 15 July 2014
In the reshuffle dubbed the “cull of the middle-aged white men”, the most important new job, Foreign Secretary, went to a middle-aged white man who studied PPE at Oxford and is worth an estimated £7.5 million.
This suggests potential fireworks in Brussels, since Philip Hammond is a known sceptic. Number 10’s aggressive line on Europe is confirmed by the blues’ reshuffle, or perhaps reshuffle blues, which sees Dominic Grieve and Kenneth Clarke sacked. Clarke was the most prominent pro-EU Tory, and has been merrily off-message all year. Grieve was described by The Telegraph as the last “real obstacle to a Tory commitment to withdrawing from the European Court of Human Rights.”
In January I constructed a blunt guesstimate of Conservative Euroscepticism. Hammond was the senior Tory nearest ‘Brexit’. When asked how he would vote if there was a snap EU referendum, Hammond supported Chris Grayling’s comment that Britain “cannot and should not” remain in the EU as it stands. Hammond told Andrew Neil with some force, “The European Union is going to change”.
In another interview Hammond asserted:
“If the choice is between a European Union written exactly as it is today and not being a part of that…I’m on the side of the argument that Michael Gove put forward.”
Gove had just endorsed British exit if renegotiation failed, although both made clear they supported David Cameron’s reform strategy. Still, saying that “we have to negotiate a better solution that works better for Britain if we are going to stay in” will signal to the Tories’ more rebellious Eurosceptics that Cameron is genuinely on their side. The new Foreign Secretary is not afraid to speak his mind, as he has on Europe and other sensitive issues: he refused to support same-sex marriage, compared homosexuality to incest, and blamed the financial crisis on borrowers of toxic financial products, rather than bank lenders.
Hammond has a reputation as a ‘safe pair of hands’, the Westminster bubble agrees, but can he press the flesh with the combination of warmth, charm and quiet steeliness needed to get 27 other countries and three sluggish institutions on side? As a technocrat and businessman he knows how to get things done, but might not be the lightest touch. With experience from his shadow Treasury days, when he was known as the ‘axe man’ and planned the austerity programme, Hammond will champion cost-slashing in Europe just as he’s done with the military. He will see Cameron’s real-terms EU budget cut as a fair start, not a one-off.
Hammond will outshine Lord Hill, Britain’s nominated but unwilling commissioner, although there could be dangerous tension. Hill is a moderate, formerly Clarke’s Special Adviser then John Major’s political secretary during the Maastricht crisis. It’s possible that the bellicose signal of Hammond’s appointment, and a vehement first trip to Brussels all guns blazing, could cement Hammond’s diplomatic precedence but alienate Europeans willing to offer concessions. If so, this would set the scene for the Conservative leadership recommending Brexit.