Iceland 1 – Turkey 0

Civitas, 28 July 2010

Yesterday (27th July), EU foreign ministers agreed to open accession negotiations with Iceland, just a year after the country formerly applied for membership of the EU, writes Natalie Hamill. The move coincided with David Cameron’s first visit to Ankara, where he lamented the lack of progress on Turkey’s candidature and identified himself as the “strongest possible advocate” for Turkey’s membership bid.

EU ‘candidate countries’ are progressing on accession negotiations at vastly differing rates. Whilst Iceland’s EU accession seems to be progressing “full steam” ahead (despite support for joining the EU dwindling amongst its citizens), Turkey’s accession progress – where support for EU membership was once extraordinarily high – is a different story.

In a speech this week, Cameron said he was “angry” at the slow pace of Turkey’s accession. He alluded to a perceived reluctance to let Turkey join the union and drew parallels with the UK’s original membership bid. Turkey, he said, had the potential to be “a great European power”, and its prospective EU membership is “vital for our economy, vital for our security and vital for our diplomacy”. Turkey has the youngest population in Europe, and is predicted to have the second strongest economy by 2050.

With a majority Muslim population and its geographical postition straddling Europe and Asia, Turkey is frequently portrayed as the outsider of the EU candidate countries. Whilst Cameron sees Turkey as the “bridge” between Europe and the Middle East, several other governments are concerned about Turkey’s porous borders and the potential “watering down of Christian values”.

Cameron believes “Turkey’s relationships in the region, both with Israel and with the Arab world, are of incalculable value”, and this is particularly true with the current situation with Iran. According to the British Prime Minister, Turkey is the European country with the best chance of “persuading” Iran to change its course on nuclear technology.

Iceland waited only 1 year to formerly open EU accession talks, Turkey had to wait 18 years, and opposition to its membership has minimised progress on accession negotiations, which have frequently been stalled over Turkey’s human rights record and ‘the Cyprus issue’. After nearly 2 decades of talks, only 13 of the 35 negotiation chapters have been opened, and only 1 of these has been “provisionally closed”.

Some within the EU are openly hostile to Turkish membership of the EU. European President, Herman Van  Rompuy, once said “Turkey is not a part of Europe and will never be part of Europe“. And Turkey’s membership also faces opposition from Germany and France, who prefer to promote a “special partnership” role for Turkey rather than full EU membership.

In contrast, Iceland is being treated rather differently.  Largely supported by member states (even Paris “strongly backs” the candidature) Iceland’s membership of EFTA and the Schengen Agreement are being cited as reasons to hope for a speedy accession, overlooking the falling support for EU membership amongst Icelandic citizens, and the country’s fragile economic situation.

The last waves of EU enlargement – in 2005 and 2007 – nearly doubled the size of the bloc from 15 to 27 members, causing an “enlargement fatigue” that has been worsened by the current debilitating economic situation.  Iceland’s green light on EU membership, however, marks the return of momentum for the next stage of enlargement. For example, recent weeks have seen an easing of the Slovenian-Croatian border dispute (increasing Croatia’s chance of joining the EU by the end of the year), an International court ruling that Kosovo’s declaration of independence wasn’t illegal (taking Serbia’s bid a step closer, as a possible consolation) and Macedonia and Greece are on the brink of agreeing a compromise on FYR Macedonia’s name, the main hurdle to its membership bid.

In light of these developments, Cameron’s speech in Turkey was the picture of solidarity, and the timing is right to bring Turkey’s candidature back into public debate. The Prime Minister waved off accusations that his enthusiasm for Turkish EU membership stemmed from his favouring further enlargement as a means of “watering-down” the existing union. He insisted that Turkey’s candidature deserves equal consideration to Iceland’s, and other more typically “European” countries, and said he is determined that Turkey will not be shouldered on to the sidelines. However, with the support of all EU member states required to close each accession negotiation chapter, it will not be an easy task.