Cameron must be clear on the EU in order to take advantage of French olive branch

Anna Sonny, 25 September 2015

The uncertainty that hangs over our relationship with the EU is a stark reflection of David Cameron’s lack of clarity over certain issues. The prime minister took a long time to even establish which side of his divided party he was on – those who are keen to remain in the EU or the sceptics who want out. He chose to straddle the two, demanding reform from the EU, and threatening Brexit if these were not met. For the UK public, clarity on what might happen in the case of Brexit would be helpful in tempering the uncertainty that clouds the debate (as pointed out on last week’s blog) – but this has not been forthcoming.

Cameron’s list of renegotiation demands, which includes reform on benefits for migrants, an opt-out from ever closer union and a curb on the EU budget, depends on what the other EU member states are willing to concede. His demands have been somewhat overshadowed by the refugee crisis during which Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called for more Europe instead of less. But just yesterday, French finance minister Emmanuel Macron announced that UK renegotiation plans could form a part of treaty changes to create an integrated eurozone after the German and French elections in 2017.

Earlier this year German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she wasn’t ruling EU treaty change out; now Macron’s announcement has strengthened the case for a two-speed Europe with a more integrated Eurozone and a possible looser relationship for the UK. Cameron’s plans could finally be realised. The fact that two top EU economies are considering treaty change will be a big boost for Cameron’s reform campaign at home – if Europe is willing to keep us in on our own terms then a ‘Yes’ vote to remaining in at the referendum is likely, provided they can be affirmed before the vote, which has also been given a vague timescale of any time before the end of 2017.

The French finance minister has also poignantly pointed out that he is not clear on exactly what David Cameron wants. It is now time for the prime minister to be transparent about our relationship with the EU. Macron’s statement can only help Cameron’s reform campaign if he lays out his plans with clarity – in spite of a likely backlash from Ukip about the reforms not going far enough. If he does so, and these changes are agreed, and Britain votes to stay in, then the EU debate might be hushed in the UK. At least for another few years or so, anyway.