The Scottish decision to preserve the status quo doesn’t bode well for Brexit campaigners
Anna Sonny, 19 September 2014
Scotland has voted ‘No’ to independence by a majority of 55%. The victory of the Better Together campaign will be a relief to Westminster, as the prospect of Scottish independence became more and more real over the past few weeks. If the Tories win the general election next year, the next referendum in the UK will be on whether Britain should stay in the EU.
Despite First Minister Alex Salmond’s performance in the televised debates making it seem like the ‘Yes’ campaign might win out, and the campaign inching ahead in the polls a few days ago, making Scottish independence a distinct possibility, the status quo prevailed. This anxiety about change doesn’t bode well for those who will be campaigning for Brexit in the possible referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
The BBC puts the Better Together campaign’s victory down to five things: they were the favourites to win anyway, apparently polls show the Scottish feel British, the risk factor involved in separation, the efforts of British politicians to stem the ‘Yes’ campaign, and worries over the economic future of Scotland.
In comparison to what might affect the EU referendum campaigns in Britain, since the European identity is not something that most Britons hold to, (only 14% of Britons see themselves as European) the two biggest factors will most likely be the element of risk involved in leaving the EU and concerns about the economy. (Jonathan Lindsell deals with both of these in Softening the Blow.)
In the same way that the currency question remained unclear for Scotland, and perhaps less importantly, nobody knew what to do with the Union Jack, uncertainty about what would happen if Britain does leave the EU has a strong chance of affecting the vote.
The Scottish decision to stay in shows that leaving important questions unanswered will not win campaigns. There is no chance of shifting the status quo on Europe unless the uncertainty is dealt with.
The Scotch independence referendum cannot be compared with a UK referendum on EU membership.
The Scotch position within the UK is much to their benefit, the claimed English repression being so vile the English taxpayer suffers them to receive from the Treasury £1,600 per head pa more than that spent on the English.
Scotland has been part of the same state for 307 years: the UK has been attached to Europe for 41 years.
Scotland shares a great deal of cultural and social linkage with England.The UK shares little with the EU by comparison.
Scotland and England speak the same language. The EU is an ever expanding tower of Babel.
There is widespread and growing resentment and dislike of the EU, especially the free movement of people within the EU and EEA. The resentment of Westminster by Scotland is less severe now than it was 20 years ago because of devolution, while immigration is not an issue in Scotland because most immigrants settle in England. .
Scotland leaving the UK was a much greater leap in the dark than the UK leaving the EU would be. Scotland has a tiny economy, the UK has a massive one. Scotland would have had to find a new currency; the UK has its own currency. The UK is still a serious military power. Scotland would be negligible as a military power. Scotland would have had to create not only the apparatus of a new state but build a reputation both economically and diplomatically. The UK would leave the EU as a fully fledged and established nation state with a permanent seat at the UN and influence in the IMF and World Bank.
The UK would have serious levers to use against the rest of the EU if they tried to undermine the UK if it wanted to leave. For example, the UK would be able to easily cripple another EU member, the Republic of Ireland, with a trade embargo if the EU placed an embargo on British goods. The UK also has a substantial trade deficit with the EU. Play difficult with the UK and the EU states lose the British market. There is also the major enterprises like Airbus which are shared by various EU members states.