Erdogan wins Presidential election – but has he polarised Turkey?

Anna Sonny, 15 August 2014

Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the country’s first ever direct presidential elections this week with 52% of the vote. The victory makes him one of Turkey’s most successful leaders in recent history; he has won three general elections so far, and could potentially serve another 10 years as the country’s president.

Erdogan is certainly credited with turning Turkey into an economic success. From a troubled economy in the late 1990s with an inflation rate of 90%, in the last ten years the country has paid off its debt to the International Monetary Fund, curbed inflation, seen a huge influx of foreign investment, and since 2009 has seen unemployment drop from 15% to 9%.

But an uncomfortable point of tension remains in Erdogan’s strong inclination towards authoritarian means of rule. His desire to make the presidential role more executive, like that of France, could make more liberally-minded Turks nervous. Last year when anti-government protests spread through the country, Erdogan’s response was a violent crackdown on protesters amidst complaints of a conspiracy theory against him. His heavy-handed reaction drew international criticism. When his party found itself mired in a corruption scandal earlier this year Erdogan went after social media, banning YouTube and Twitter, sealing his apparent disregard for freedom of speech.

Earlier this month, the deputy prime minister and co-founder of the ruling AK Party Bulent Arinc made some rather unusual comments about women laughing in public during a speech: “She will not laugh out loud in public. She will not be inviting in her attitudes and will protect her chasteness.” His comments were met with derisive laughter all over Twitter as women posted photos of themselves laughing in public places, but his lack of contrition points to an attitude that doesn’t belong in a modern democracy.

Although Erdogan avoided a second-round run-off by winning 52% of the vote, the nearly evenly split result could point to a polarisation amongst Turkish voters between support for Erdogan on economic grounds and deep mistrust and opposition on liberal grounds. In the 2011 parliamentary elections Erdogan won 21.5 million votes, but this month he gained 20.7 million.

Having drastically improved the country’s economic track record, it looks like his support could decline unless he improves his own track record on authoritarianism.